A Markov Model for Human Resources Supply Forecast Dividing the HR System into Subgroups

Modeling the manpower management mainly concerns the prediction of future behavior of employees. The paper presents a predictive model of numbers of employees in a hierarchical dependent-time system of human resources, incorporating subsystems that each contains grades of the same family. The proposed model is motivated by the reality of staff development which confirms that the path evolution of each employee is usually in his family of grades. That is the reason of dividing the system into subgroups and the choice of the superdiagonal transition matrix.